Vice President Kamala Harris held a slim lead over former President Donald Trump in the average of all final polls tabulated by FiveThirtyEight.com as of Election Day (November 5).
Harris is reported to have a 48% to 46.8% edge over Trump in the national polls, according to the website, which updates the "average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects."
Harris was also reported to have a close lead over Trump in several swing states, according to the final New York Times/Siena College Poll released on Sunday (November 3). The vice president is reportedly leading within the margin of error in Nevada (49% to 46%), North Carolina (48% to 46%), Wisconsin (49% to 47%) and Georgia (48% to 47%), while the former president has a 49% to 45% lead in Arizona.
The two candidates are also reported to be tied at 48% in Pennsylvania and 47% in Michigan. The final New York Times/Siena College Poll was conducted among likely voters between October 24 and November 2.
Both candidates are expected to have multiple pathways to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to be elected if the polls aren't dramatically underestimating support for either candidate. Harris is reported to be gaining momentum among late deciders, with a 55% to 44% advantage over
Trump among the 8% of voters who said they only recently decided on their choice. About 11% of voters were reported to still be undecided or persuadable, which decreased from about 16% from the previous month.
More than 70 million Americans are reported to have already voted early, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, and the New York Times/Siena College Poll surveyed about 40% of those voters across the seven battleground states. Harris was reported to win by an 8% margin among the exit poll voters, while Trump is reported to have an advantage among voters who plan to vote but haven't yet cast their ballot.
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